Category Archives:

economic growth

Japan: weakening growth and inflation, and an unpopular government

I was in Tokyo last week, seeing a mix of economists, JGB experts and clients.  I was also awesome at karaoke, dressed as an astronaut.

The last time I was in Japan, over a year ago, I came away thinking there was a decent chance that the Bank of Japan would abandon its zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) as it was damaging banks’ profits, and sending a negative signal to Japanese households and b…

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A life less easy for the ECB

Back in 2017, the economic outlook was increasingly rosy for the Eurozone. After years of ultra-loose monetary policy, a synchronised global recovery was in train. The Eurozone economy expanded apace, regularly surprising to the upside, unemployment continued to fall, the banking system had partially recapitalised and funding costs for corporates and sovereigns alike remained low on any measure…

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US yield curve flattening: nothing to see here

Guest contributor – Tristan Hanson (Fund Manager, M&G Multi-Asset Team)

The following blog was first posted on M&G’s Multi-Asset Team Blog, www.episodeblog.com. M&G’s Equities Team also regularly post their views at www.equitiesforum.com.

The flattening of the US yield curve has inspired much commentary and hand-wringing in certain quarters lately. The concern is overdone.

Looking back at perio…

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Premier League footballers are making currency calls, like rappers and models in 2007. Are they right to avoid GBP?

According to recent reports, leading foreign football players in the English Premier League are looking to get paid in euro rather than sterling. Since the UK referendum result in June last year, sterling has fallen by 12% against the euro, so it is unsurprising to see that some players have questioned the denomination of their salaries. It is not the first time that global stars have asked to …

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Divergence in Eurozone bond yields: threat or opportunity?

Guest contributor – Maria Municchi (Fund Manager, M&G Multi-Asset Team)

The following blog was first posted on M&G’s Multi-Asset Team blog, www.episodeblog.com. M&G’s Equities Team also regularly post their views at www.equitiesforum.com.

Despite the partial realignment of European long-dated government bond yields following the Euro crisis in 2012, there has been renewed divergence in yields i…

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Where is UK growth going to come from? Our take on the IFS Green Budget

The IFS (Institute for Fiscal Studies) Green Budget hit the headlines last week with its forecast that, over the course of this parliament, the UK tax burden is set to rise to its highest level in 30 years. The IFS has calculated that by 2020 the proportion of national income raised through taxes will increase to 37%.

I was at the presentation, and the more concerning issue for me was the rathe…

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Our demographic challenges require new economic thinking

Capital markets have experienced a major shift in sentiment over the course of the last couple of months. Fears over secular stagnation and deflation have dissipated, and investors have been willing to embrace risk assets again. Many economists have revised upwards their estimates of global economic growth, starting first with the US where the fiscal reigns are expected to be loosened in order …

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The Irish economy: a Bond Vigilantes quick video update

Last weekend we were at the brilliant Kilkenomics festival in Kilkenny, Ireland.  Whilst we were there (and it’s a fantastic town) we filmed this short video.  In the wake of the Trump election victory there’s a mini-panic going on in Ireland, not least because, in common with Mexico, there are many undocumented Irish in the US whose future has become uncertain.  There’s also the huge issue of …

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“The Wealth of Humans” by Ryan Avent. Our interview with the author and a chance to win his book.

Earlier this year we interviewed both Robert Gordon (here) and Martin Ford (here) about their books examining the impact of technology on the modern economy.  In the latest of our author interviews I talked to the Economist’s senior editor and economics columnist Ryan Avent about his new book, “The Wealth of Humans”, that develops this same theme.  In particular he looks at how we will be able …

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Armageddon fatigue: reasons to be optimistic in the longer term

Watching the news flow on the global economy is dispiriting. Ask an economist what springs to mind when they hear the word “Europe”. They will probably reply with thoughts about negative interest rates, deflation and debt concerns. It isn’t much better when you bring up the economic outlook for the US (“the upcoming election is a concern”), Japan (“the BoJ is at the limits of monetary policy”),…

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