The coronavirus crisis is having a profound and lasting effect on the global economy, with the vast majority of countries expected to get back to their 2019 level of economic output only in 2022. The consequences of the crisis are not just limited to the economy and to changes in human behaviour. In many countries of the CEE/CIS region, the crisis has coincided with election cycles and will le…Read the article
“Events, dear boy, events”, UK Prime Minister Harold Macmillan responded to a journalist when asked what is most likely to blow governments off course.
At the beginning of this year, Donald Trump was favourite to follow in the footsteps of the previous three Presidents and win re-election. However, events have since unfolded that put his re-election into serious doubt.
…Read the article
Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts has big plans. She dislikes the path the United States is on and wants to make fundamental changes to the economy. These plans include much tougher regulation of banks, a breakup of large ‘monopolies’ — her first sight is on technology companies — and also a healthcare system based on a single payer principle. Just under a year from the US President…Read the article
Global investors are paying special attention to the forthcoming general election in Brazil, not only because the country is the world’s eighth-largest economy, ahead of Italy and Canada, but also because in these turbulent times for Emerging Markets (EMs), an unexpected or market-unfriendly outcome could bring more volatility to the entire asset class. After the recent sell-offs in Turkey and …Read the article
And they say German elections are boring… As the preliminary results are in, here are our three key takeaways.
(1) Merkel goes fourth
First things first, as expected Angela Merkel has won the election. Her CDU, in combination with its Bavarian sister party CSU, is going to remain the largest faction in parliament (33.0% of votes combined). All roads lead to a fourth term for her as chancellor. …Read the article
The votes are in and it is clear. For the second time in 2016 we have had a major rejection of the political status quo. Following on from the shock UK referendum result, a Trump victory is further evidence that many believe that we have reached peak globalisation and income inequality. The perceived losers of globalisation have turned the incumbent political system on its head, and with it we …Read the article
As James mentioned this morning the European high yield markets’ response to the Trump election victory has been fairly benign. The U.S. high yield market, as one would expect, has been a bit more pronounced, although not as severe as European equities or S&P futures. The U.S. CDX Index, a CDS index of U.S. high yield issuers much like Europe’s Itraxx Crossover, initially dropped nearly two poi…Read the article
After the surprise election result, market reaction within the European high yield market has been surprisingly muted. Here are a few key moves that show how the news is being digested.
In general, the market seems to be pricing in little to no impact for European risk premia, and even for the more potentially directly impacted companies in Latin America, the re-pricing has been very mild.
It …Read the article
Today’s US election result has several implications for emerging markets. At a first glance, the outcome is clearly negative, given the potential downside risks from increased trade protectionism, anti-immigration measures, large fiscal expansion and steepening of the US yield curve and uncertainty in terms of foreign policy.
These risks are already being reflected in asset prices. Since the re…Read the article
As Donald Trump delivers his victory speech, and is set to become America’s 45th President, here’s a quick update on what we’re seeing in bond and currency markets since you went to bed. For bonds, the impact has so far been relatively modest; it’s been equity markets where moves have been stronger (the Nikkei is down 5%). Last night the Mexican peso was the barometer of the likely outcome, a…Read the article