Category Archives:

inflation

Real gilt yields have outperformed

The rise in UK inflation expectations since Brexit

I wrote ahead of the UK referendum that I felt front end index-linked bonds were a good way to play the uncertainty surrounding the result, given the fact that they have crucial non-binary hedge characteristics. Since the result, breakevens (i.e. the market’s expectation of future inflation) have behaved exactly as expected, rallying. The chart below shows how nominal yields have collapsed to r…

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twitter-poll

Will the €500 note trade at a premium or discount once the ECB stops printing them? The poll results are in…

Earlier this week Richard Woolnough wrote a blog about negative rates and tax on interest.  In it he also suggested that once the ECB stops printing the €500 note and ends issuance of its existing notes at the end of 2018, the legacy notes will trade at a premium.  The argument is that because the notes will remain legal tender across the Eurozone, demand for a note with the lowest storage cost…

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16.05.05-RW-blog1

Negative rates – a tax on saving? Don’t forget about actual tax

There has been much discussion recently that by introducing negative rates central banks are effectively taxing savings. This is self-explanatory, and is one of the criticisms of how negative rates can distort economic behaviour. This however is not a new phenomenon.  Let’s not forget that money has always been effectively clipped by the traditional enemy of savers – inflation. Fortunately, hol…

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US inflation expectations are rising fast, but inflation is rising faster

2015 saw global inflation risk premia collapse, led by the developed world. US, UK and European annual inflation rates spent most of the year at or around zero with numerous dips into negative territory. Short dated breakevens correspondingly fell to levels that we last saw during the financial crisis (well, to be fair, they went far lower back then, but we are still at crisis levels today), an…

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The new wedge in US inflation linked bonds

The new wedge in US inflation linked bonds

There has long been a well-known ‘wedge’ in the UK index linked bond market, since the bonds pay RPI and the Bank of England targets CPI. The wedge is the difference between these two price indices, and over the long term is thought to be approximately 1%. So over the long term, and with all sorts of caveats, RPI will be around 1% higher than CPI. The reasons for the wedge are essentially that …

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The El Niño effect

Need motivation for your New Year diet? M&G’s cake index shows that cake is getting more expensive

I blogged in 2014 with good news for cake lovers; falling soft commodity prices indicated that the cost of baking cakes was getting cheaper.  Unfortunately (and in contrast to hard commodity prices, notably oil recently hitting new post global financial crisis lows), the final quarter of 2015 depicted a reversal in trend with soft commodity prices on the rise.

In September we discussed the pote…

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The effect of changes in oil prices on the price of one litre of petrol in the UK

Oil price fall failing to pump deflation

One of the major factors that has enabled inflation to stay low despite the economic strength in major western economies has been the fall in the price of oil. Given the huge price volatility over the past 18 months it is interesting to depict the falling influence of oil on actual end inflation.

In the UK, the most direct way that changes in the oil price affect inflation is through petrol pri…

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Why seasonality in consumer prices matters for bond markets

Guest contributor – Jean-Paul Jaegers CFA (Senior Investment Strategist, Prudential Portfolio Management Group)

One asset class where seasonality matters hugely is inflation linked fixed income. This makes a lot of sense, as inflation is the underlying macro variable, and inflation by its nature is very seasonal. For example, post Halloween sales or Holiday packages tend to happen in regular pe…

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15.10.28 blog RW1

The real data – the Phillips curve is alive and well

One of the first rules of economics is that the equilibrium market price is generated by relative supply and demand. Limited supply or excess demand should result in an increase in price. One of the questions that has arisen in the post financial crisis world is why have wages not increased despite unemployment heading towards historically low levels? Given the improvement in data such as headl…

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What has the recent fall in oil prices got to do with inflation over the next three decades?

What has the recent fall in oil prices got to do with inflation over the next three decades? Plus robots, charity, Morrissey.

First of all thanks to Business Insider.  Every now and then we come into work to find hundreds of new Twitter followers have joined us overnight – this week it was thanks to BI listing us second in its round up of finance Tweeters.  It’s a great list and pretty much everyone on it is worth a follow – I’d also recommend following Business Insider’s European markets editor Mike Bird (@Birdyword)…

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