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Panoramic Outlook

A whole new ball game. M&G 2017 economic and bond market outlook.

In our latest Panoramic Outlook, Jim Leaviss has a look at the forces that resulted in a tumultuous year for establishment politics, the ECB’s quantitative easing dilemma and the prospects for emerging markets in 2017. For the first time since the financial crisis, it appears that bond yields will come under sustained pressure as central banks gradually remove monetary stimulus. The impacts of …

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Either the demographic bond models are broken, or yields are headed to 10%.

For fixed income fund managers it was once the case that if you understood the evolution of the relative sizes of the various cohorts of the young, the working, and the retired in a population, you could predict bond returns.  Lots of workers relative to the “unproductive” young or elderly meant low wage pressures, lots of demand for savings assets such as bonds, and lower government borrowing….

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M&G Panoramic Outlook: The growing opportunity in corporate bond markets, by Richard Woolnough

Last year proved a tough year for investment grade corporate bonds, with credit spreads moving wider. Fast forward six months to today and the decision of the UK referendum to leave the EU is continuing to shake markets, with European credit spreads now even further elevated. It is nevertheless important to recognise that these bouts of volatility can however present buying opportunities as cor…

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M&G Bond Vigilantes 2016 Macro Outlook by Jim Leaviss

The weather has turned cold, the nights are drawing in and the Christmas lights have been turned on. Not only does the holiday season herald the return of a fat man in a red suit, it is also time for the annual M&G Bond Vigilantes Macro Outlook. Inflation is low, bond yields are negative and global growth is slowing. But things are about to change. The central bank of the world’s largest econom…

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M&G Panoramic Outlook: Jim Leaviss’ views for the second half of 2015

Deflation. Liquidity. Greece. These are the words of 2015 if you are a bond investor. The year started off with a bang, or rather a break, when the Swiss National Bank (SNB) announced the surprise abandonment of the peg with the euro. This was only a mere week before the European Central Bank (ECB) embarked upon an historic quantitative easing programme. Deflation took hold in Europe, governmen…

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Panoramic Outlook: Jim Leaviss’ view of the year ahead in bond markets

Oscar Wilde supposedly once said that ‘everything popular is wrong’. Well, the overwhelming consensus at the start of 2014 that bond markets were not a great place to be invested turned out to be very wrong indeed. The relentless march lower in bond yields, and thus strong performance from government bonds and investment grade (for example, sterling IG has returned more than 10% so far this yea…

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