Category Archives:

US

Are debt markets and rating agencies giving M&A too much credit?

Guest contributor – Simon Duff (Credit Analyst, M&G Credit Analysis team)

Last week, International TV network operator Discovery Communications announced the US$15bn acquisition of Scripps Networks.  Scripps owns TV networks focused on food, home and travel, so it fits with the factual or “non-scripted” focus of Discovery’s core networks (Discovery, TLC, Animal Planet).  It also offers an oppor…

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Financial conditions suggest the case for more hawkish Fed than inflation dynamics would suggest

Guest contributor – Jean-Paul Jaegers, CFA, CQF (Senior Investment Strategist, Prudential Portfolio Management Group)

A lot has been written on the recent softness in US inflation data, as headline inflation pulled back, with a similar trend in core inflation. Admittedly, a number of unusual factors have partly been a driver behind this, although more importantly there is quite some persistence…

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Debt ceiling tremors in the Treasury market

The United States is fast approaching the point at which its indebtedness reaches its debt limit, which generally is approved by Congress without debate. Routinely in the past the debt ceiling would be raised, reflecting that it does not affect the amount of spending, but only makes sure the U.S. can pay for spending it is committed to whether by tax receipts or by borrowing. It is about ensuri…

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A problem with U.S. average hourly earnings, and why it may be understating the true picture

The last time the US had an unemployment rate below 5% and inflation expectations around 2%, the Fed funds rate was above 5% and had been aggressively hiked in the preceding period. Yellen’s Fed has been happy to let rates stay low amongst a tight and tightening labour market because wage growth has been lower than one would expect for a jobs market as healthy as this one. So, slow growth of wa…

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The Israeli Shekel: Flying under the radar

Though the recent US Treasury report did not name any country as a currency manipulator (see more details on this in Mario’s blog), the monitoring list centres on larger economies that meet the following criteria:

  1. The country has a significant bilateral trade surplus with the United States defined as more than USD 20 billion.
  2. The country has a current account surplus of at least 3% of GDP and …

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Is a telecom acquisition spree set to kick off in the U.S.?

Last week, the U.S. Federal Communication Commission (FCC) announced the results of the latest $20 billion, 600Mhz spectrum auction. Communication companies were bidding for spectrum over which they provide wireless services to their customers.  The largest bids came from wireless mobile operator, T-Mobile USA, which spent $8 billion, and U.S. satellite TV provider DISH Network, which spent $6….

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Three of our most popular charts

We often use Twitter to share the charts that we think are interesting, but probably don’t warrant the extra analysis of a blog. With this in mind, I’ve had a look to see which charts were most favourited or retweeted by our followers at @bondvigilantes and provided a little more detail than 140 characters can allow.

  1. Fed Loan Officer Survey show US banks have tightened standards for six consec…

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Clouds in the Valley – Dispatches from a tech conference

I was recently in San Francisco for an internet and technology conference. An array of senior tech managers spoke about their firms’ prospects, priorities and where they see opportunities. Twitter’s Jack Dorsey aside, the overwhelming focus of every session I attended over the three days was cloud computing.

Cloud computing is essentially the move away from users buying, owning and maintaining …

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Posted under US

President Trump will be good for the transmission mechanism of animal spirits

The world will soon turn to the inauguration of Donald Trump. For at least the next four years, global investment markets will be focusing on his Presidency. This is always the case when a new President takes over the reins of the most economically powerful country in the world, but why does it feel more important this time?

Firstly, political deadlock has been broken. For the first time since …

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Does the US government bond market sell off mark the return of the bond vigilantes?

The bond market was intimidating during the Clinton years, and has started as it means to go on for Trump’s term.  As we celebrate this website’s 10th anniversary, it proves fitting that the bond market reminds us why we named the blog as we did.

The result of the US election was a surprise given the polls, but the exceptionally short-lived “risk-off” reaction in bond markets has been just as …

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