Category Archives:

Yield curve

BVTV: Recession or growth ahead?

Sovereign bond markets sold off last week, following strong US data. However, Friday’s US jobs report showed that hiring cooled down in September more than expected – a point that markets seemed to ignore as Treasuries continued to sell off. Is it a growing US economy that we have ahead? Or should we expect growth to be challenged by higher rates and rising oil prices? Watch M&G’s portfolio man…

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US long rates: is the giant anaconda about to turn?

The long-end of the US Treasury market has often been described as a giant anaconda: it draws little attention as it sleeps most of the time, but the minute it wakes up, everybody around shakes. US 30-year bonds don’t bite, but their moves can be as poisonous as they basically determine millions of mortgage rates, as well as the price that governments and companies around the world pay for debt…

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The front-end of the US Treasuries curve: short and sweet?

With the notable exception of the upcoming royal wedding, it would be pretty difficult to find a topic that is currently more over-analysed than the flattening of the US Treasury yield curve. On this blog as well we have pondered potential implications for credit valuations and possible counter-measures the Fed might employ. Still, one aspect that has arguably not received enough attention in t…

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Does the U.S. yield curve predict wider credit spreads? Also, goodbye to Hamish Watson

As the U.S. yield curve flattened to just 45 bps (2s-10s) last week, we dug out something I wrote back in 2007, in the early days of this blog.  A chart that accompanied the blog showed that a) U.S. BBB credit spreads had hit their tightest level for nearly 3 decades and b) that the yield curve had flattened substantially (and in fact inverted).  If you pushed the yield curve shape chart 18 mon…

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