As we pass the 10-year anniversary of the Lehman default and we started thinking about what we were doing back in 2008 (desperately moving my savings out of certain banks was high on the list for me, whilst listening to MGMT and Los Campesinos; album of the year? TV On The Radio’s Dear Science), I went back to our blog, to see what the early warning signs were in the summer of that year.
It is … Read the article
Last week the European Investment Bank (EIB) issued the first public bond based on the reformed SONIA benchmark, marking another step forward in the process of benchmark reform in the U.K. The 5-year, £1bn issue was priced with a coupon of 35bp above overnight SONIA. The deal may very well serve as a benchmark for future issuance in the LIBOR-less world which the Bank of England and other regu… Read the article
Former Bank of England Deputy Governor Paul Tucker has written a book about accountability and central banking. Have central banks become “overmighty citizens”, with too much power and insufficient democratic input? If so, does it matter and what can we do about it? In an era of QE, and bailouts of commercial banks, wealth inequality has widened in most developed economies. Did society agr… Watch the video
If you looked at the post-referendum changes in sterling versus the dollar, or the movement in gilts, you’d be forgiven for thinking that Brexit was done and dusted. The 10 year gilt yield has bounced back to around pre-referendum levels hovering around the 1.4% mark (in August 2016, 10 year gilts rallied to historical lows of 0.5%), while the front end of the yield curve has moved higher. Simi… Read the article
The Bank of England’s (BoE) Term Funding Scheme (TFS) came to an end earlier this year. As a brief recap, the scheme offered four year funding at the BoE Base Rate plus a fee to the banks and in turn, the banks were required to lend into the real economy (the fee was dependent upon the net lending of the bank). We previously wrote about the scheme here and here.
The borrowing scheme has been hu… Read the article
In December 2012, the then Governor of the Bank of Canada, Mark Carney, gave a speech entitled “Guidance” to the CFA Society of Toronto. Less than two weeks earlier, the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, had announced that Carney would be the 120th Governor of the Bank of England (BoE). As this was Carney’s first public engagement since the announcement, traders and market economi… Read the article
On August 4th last year, the Bank of England announced a series of easing measures in response to the Brexit referendum results. They were very concerned regarding a potential slowdown and collapse in both the economy and corporate confidence and so implemented a variety of measures; reducing interest rates, increasing liquidity lines for banks, and reintroducing their gilt and corporate bond p… Read the article
In the UK, as of next month the official measure of consumer prices will become CPIH, with the H standing for housing. As at today, the only difference between CPI and CPIH is the inclusion of owner-occupied housing in the latter, on a rental equivalence basis (“how much would it cost to rent the home I own?”, a similar measure to the Owners’ Equivalent Rent component of US CPI), which has a w… Read the article
It’s rare to find a piece of writing that EVERYONE in bond markets has read and is talking about, but in January, a blog by Paul Schmelzing on the Bank of England’s excellent Bank Underground site did just that. Paul is a visiting scholar from Harvard University, working at the Bank of England to research foreign exchange policy in the era of Bretton Woods. In the blog however he took a very … Read the article
Now that the Bank of England has commenced purchases of gilts and committed to a programme of corporate bond buybacks, alongside similar measures being presently undertaken by the ECB, it is worth taking a step back and thinking about valuations in sterling fixed income.
Let’s take a brief look at what has happened so far in 2016 in government bonds. The ultra-long conventional gilt has returne… Read the article