Emerging Markets (EM) debt had a torrid 2018 as global macro risks (including general geopolitics and trade wars), softer EM growth and idiosyncratic stories (Argentina, Turkey), all repriced relatively expensive valuations at the beginning of the year. Are the new prices a better reflection of fundamentals? This will largely depend on the evolution of 5 key topics.
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- China-US – upside surprise…
The luxury goods sector has lost some of its polish – at least in financial markets. Uncertainty regarding the strength of the Chinese consumer means it is important to be selective. Watch M&G Investment Director Shane Kelly and Global Consumer Analyst Catherine Lock discuss. Watch the video
Ten years after the outbreak of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) it is time to pause and reflect about an event whose consequences still have a major impact on financial markets and people’s daily lives. In his book “Crashed: How a decade of financial crisis changed the world,” UK economist and Columbia University professor Adam Tooze challenges the way the GFC has been storified, points at so… Watch the video
Most global fixed income asset classes gained over the past five trading days, despite an escalation of the ongoing US-China trade war and the inclusion of new tariffs between the world’s two largest economies. Reduced trade, however, may bring more harm than good to the US economy, as levies usually generate inflation and, therefore, higher rates. Indeed, the benchmark US 10-year Treasury yiel… Read the article
Credit is the oil that lubricates the engine of an economy. For this reason, economists watch credit statistics closely, in order to assess the sustainability of growth. If credit isn’t growing, it suggests households and firms aren’t confident enough in their respective outlooks to borrow and invest. If credit grows too quickly, it could result in financial and macroeconomic instability – hist… Read the article
Last week, in line with expectations, China announced the renewal of the $50,000 limit of dollar purchases by individuals. What’s changed however is that the foreign exchange commission (SAFE) has tightened the scrutiny on the foreign exchange purchases. Applicants are now required to detail the purpose behind their transactions in order to ensure that the purchase is for “suitable purposes” (e… Read the article
Today is the 10th anniversary of the Bond Vigilantes blog. Here’s a look back at the incredible changes to bond markets and monetary policy that we’ve been through over that decade. Also today we are launching our new book (the difficult second album) in support of Cancer Research UK. There’s a link to our Just Giving page at the bottom if you like what we do and can spare a few quid.
My fi… Read the article
The financial world is a scary place. Debt, disinflation and deteriorating growth have plagued investors over the past year, plunging bond yields into negative territory in a number of countries. Perhaps most frighteningly, it is now eight years since the financial crisis and central banks in the developed world continue to employ an ultra-easy monetary policy stance. With government bond marke… Read the article
Chaori Solar and Baoding Tianwei will forever remain in the history of China’s bond market. In March 2014 the former became the first defaulter in the country’s onshore bond market whilst the latter turned out to be the first state-owned enterprise (SOE) default in China in April 2015. Since then, 24 other bond defaults occurred in the country, the majority of which in the manufacturing, metals… Read the article
We’ve been worried for years about the prospect of a sharp slowdown in China and the knock on implications for those countries and companies that have grown reliant on a strong China over the last decade, namely commodity exporters, some emerging markets, and particularly emerging market commodity exporters (eg see If China’s economy rebalances and growth slows, as it surely must, then who’s sc… Read the article