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economic growth

The new Taper Tantrum – H2 outlook 2020

The first half of this year saw one of the fastest and most aggressive market corrections in history, as Covid-19 spread around the globe.  Just as unprecedented was the speed and extent of the subsequent recovery, thanks above all to governments and central banks having sent in the cavalry to boost liquidity and plug the consumer confidence gap.  Combining fiscal and monetary stimulus, the g…

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Cheerio credit, not good bye

We started 2019 with credit at levels we perceived to be pretty cheap. The run since then has been remarkable, with spreads today close to all-time lows. What should one be doing with credit risk at this point?

There are reasons to remain bullish on credit, and fully invested. First, we remain in a goldilocks economic environment for bonds, with low growth and low inflation. These economic …

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Has Europe really turned the corner?

Lately a growing number of indicators have suggested that the European economy might be out of the woods, heading towards a more robust recovery. For instance, while European inflation remains significantly below the ECB’s inflation target of close to but below 2%, it is worth highlighting that the year-on-year headline rate has in fact doubled from 0.7% in October 2019 to 1.4% in January 2020….

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Could ‘Green Bunds’ be a cure for Europe’s economic malaise?

Compared to one and a half years ago, when the prevailing narrative was still revolving around global synchronised growth, the economic outlook for Europe has darkened significantly. From ‘peak optimism’ levels in late 2017, Euro area real GDP growth has slowed to 1.2%, while Eurozone manufacturing PMI has dropped by more than ten points. Even the notoriously optimistic ECB eventually had to co…

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Davos 2018: M&G’s CEO Anne Richards talks to Jim Leaviss. Are markets headed towards another financial crisis?

This year’s Davos World Economic Forum (WEF) comes at a time where equity and credit valuations look high, where we have “obvious” bubbles in cryptocurrencies, and where bond yields – perhaps an anchor for all financial asset valuations – finally seem to be moving higher.  Global borrowing across governments, financial institutions, companies and households is at record levels.  Can the global …

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Is this a turning point for bonds?

My view is that the US economy is nearer to overheating than slipping into recession. The strength of the US economy is typified by the labour market in many ways. To put some of this strength in context, look at the Challenger, Gray & Christmas Job Cut report. Last year (2017) produced an exceptionally low number of layoffs in nominal terms, and when adjusted to reflect the size of the labour …

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Canada’s increasingly divergent rate path

Yields on Canadian sovereign bonds have been dragged higher in recent months, with the yield on the 10-year bond recently reaching 2 year highs. This sell-off appears to reflect the US reflation narrative, rather than the economic fundamentals of the Canadian economy.

The market currently thinks the Bank of Canada will remain on hold throughout 2017, pricing in only one rate hike – a 20 basis …

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IMF and World Bank meetings 2016: China, Japan, UK and Europe

Last year we blogged with our key takeaways from the IMF and World Bank meetings and this year is no different. Claudia Calich and I tag-teamed between the Washington based events, participating in the many wide ranging discussions that took place, so we’re doing the same here. Claudia will be providing the emerging market coverage, while I share some insights from developed markets, alongside …

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“The Wealth of Humans” by Ryan Avent. Our interview with the author and a chance to win his book.

Earlier this year we interviewed both Robert Gordon (here) and Martin Ford (here) about their books examining the impact of technology on the modern economy.  In the latest of our author interviews I talked to the Economist’s senior editor and economics columnist Ryan Avent about his new book, “The Wealth of Humans”, that develops this same theme.  In particular he looks at how we will be able …

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