Compared to one and a half years ago, when the prevailing narrative was still revolving around global synchronised growth, the economic outlook for Europe has darkened significantly. From ‘peak optimism’ levels in late 2017, Euro area real GDP growth has slowed to 1.2%, while Eurozone manufacturing PMI has dropped by more than ten points. Even the notoriously optimistic ECB eventually had to co…Read the article
M&G Investment Specialist Mario Eisenegger tells us from Santiago de Chile why some of the most overlooked Emerging Markets (EM) may offer opportunity. From Chile’s central bank or walking down the streets of Santiago, Mario says that investors should look beyond the headlines in order to find value and spot any potential risks.
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This year’s Davos World Economic Forum (WEF) comes at a time where equity and credit valuations look high, where we have “obvious” bubbles in cryptocurrencies, and where bond yields – perhaps an anchor for all financial asset valuations – finally seem to be moving higher. Global borrowing across governments, financial institutions, companies and households is at record levels. Can the global …Watch Video
My view is that the US economy is nearer to overheating than slipping into recession. The strength of the US economy is typified by the labour market in many ways. To put some of this strength in context, look at the Challenger, Gray & Christmas Job Cut report. Last year (2017) produced an exceptionally low number of layoffs in nominal terms, and when adjusted to reflect the size of the labour …Read the article
Yields on Canadian sovereign bonds have been dragged higher in recent months, with the yield on the 10-year bond recently reaching 2 year highs. This sell-off appears to reflect the US reflation narrative, rather than the economic fundamentals of the Canadian economy.
The market currently thinks the Bank of Canada will remain on hold throughout 2017, pricing in only one rate hike – a 20 basis …Read the article
Last year we blogged with our key takeaways from the IMF and World Bank meetings and this year is no different. Claudia Calich and I tag-teamed between the Washington based events, participating in the many wide ranging discussions that took place, so we’re doing the same here. Claudia will be providing the emerging market coverage, while I share some insights from developed markets, alongside …Read the article
Earlier this year we interviewed both Robert Gordon (here) and Martin Ford (here) about their books examining the impact of technology on the modern economy. In the latest of our author interviews I talked to the Economist’s senior editor and economics columnist Ryan Avent about his new book, “The Wealth of Humans”, that develops this same theme. In particular he looks at how we will be able …Read the article
Watching the news flow on the global economy is dispiriting. Ask an economist what springs to mind when they hear the word “Europe”. They will probably reply with thoughts about negative interest rates, deflation and debt concerns. It isn’t much better when you bring up the economic outlook for the US (“the upcoming election is a concern”), Japan (“the BoJ is at the limits of monetary policy”),…Read the article
Professor Robert Gordon of North-Western University was in town this week to give speeches at Prospect Magazine (which is ace by the way) and the LSE. His latest book, “The Rise and Fall of American Growth” was released earlier this year, and is a tremendously powerful antidote to the wave of techno-optimism we might feel when we see shiny electric cars and gadgets coming out of Silicon Valley…Read the article
A year ago today the Swiss National Bank (SNB) unexpectedly discontinued its CHF peg against the euro, causing huge moves in the FX markets. On the anniversary of the peg removal I thought it would be interesting to see how the Swiss economy has developed over the past twelve months.
Swiss economy robust, but not immune during 2015
The Swiss economy actually proved to be quite resilient in 2015…Read the article