In our latest Panoramic Outlook, Jim Leaviss has a look at the forces that resulted in a tumultuous year for establishment politics, the ECB’s quantitative easing dilemma and the prospects for emerging markets in 2017. For the first time since the financial crisis, it appears that bond yields will come under sustained pressure as central banks gradually remove monetary stimulus. The impacts of …Read the article
The financial world is a scary place. Debt, disinflation and deteriorating growth have plagued investors over the past year, plunging bond yields into negative territory in a number of countries. Perhaps most frighteningly, it is now eight years since the financial crisis and central banks in the developed world continue to employ an ultra-easy monetary policy stance. With government bond marke…Read the article
The US election campaign has surprised everyone thus far. Candidate Donald Trump has vowed to deport all of the 11 million illegal immigrants currently living in the US. He has also declared that he would impound all remittance payments derived from illegal wages. We have written before how Central America and the Caribbean would benefit from improving US growth and have been invested in variou…Read the article
Following on from Gordon’s review of the best and worst performing fixed income asset classes last year, I wanted to take a more in depth look at how emerging markets performed in 2015 and what to look out for in 2016.
Some themes that drove the market in 2015 were the same themes than drove it in 2014. Once again, asset allocation was critical. Local currency debt, for the third year running, …Read the article
During my recent trip to Latin America it was funny (but not surprising) to hear the locals worrying about Colombia becoming the next Brazil. In turn, Brazilians are worried about becoming Argentina (though I believe the Argentinean problems are much more solvable in the near term than Brazil’s) …Read the article
Part of the ABC of Latin American debt series
Brazil currently finds itself caught in a destructive trap between politics and economics.
On the political front, it is impossible to trade the daily noise and headline risk. The possible impeachment (45% probability as a guesstimate) of Rouseff would still be subject to various steps and legal challenges and could take a minimum of 6-9 months. Thr…Read the article
It has been quite an eventful year for emerging markets. The fall in oil and commodity prices, the prospect of higher interest rates in the US, the corruption scandal in Brazil and of course the growth slowdown in China have all contributed to increased uncertainty for the asset class. Naturally this uncertainty has impacted performance, weighing down on returns of both hard and local currency …Read the article
I just spent two weeks traveling Latin America around the IMF meetings in Lima. The region is navigating through various shocks: lower commodity prices, deteriorating balance sheets, growth and fiscal deterioration, an urgent need for structural reforms and significant political challenges. There is plenty to write about, so in the next couple of days I will post a series of blogs focused on th…Read the article
We have seen a fairly swift and deep sell off in both commodities and emerging market equities over the past few months. The recent moves are now feeding through into a more broad-based sell off in risk assets. It appears an opportune time to take stock and see how exposed the various high yield markets are to these trends.
In order to assess any impact, I will firstly consider direct exposure,…Read the article
We recently highlighted a bond covenant that benefited fixed income investors. After the good, this week we have seen the bad. In this case, a bond covenant may impact bondholders in a detrimental way. Both examples are evidence of how critical it is to have a thorough understanding of bond documentation ahead of investing in a bond.
Kuwait’s third largest bank, Burgan Bank, announced in a regu…Read the article