Statistical data represents only an approximation of reality, and sometimes not a very good one. Generally, the less economically developed a country is, the worse the quality of the data provided by the government authorities. This increases the likelihood of later revisions, as new facts are uncovered or the methodology adjusted to better reflect the changing reality. Investors in emerging ma…Read the article
Italian politics has been in the international news, again. Markets tend to fear instability and Italy is always a creative and boundless source of uncertainty. We Italians have a wonderful ability to put ourselves into trouble. The good news is that markets in recent weeks have held up more than in the past.
1 – Political life in the peninsula
In the last few weeks, research from many well-kn…Read the article
Guest contributor – Tolani Benson (Financials/Sovereign analyst, M&G Credit Analysis team)
Hungary has a substantial amount of debt outstanding – the IMF estimates levels were around €75bn at the end of last year, corresponding to 74% of GDP. Its local currency debt makes up a decent proportion of emerging market indices, constituting a not insignificant 4.6% of the widely used JPMorgan GBI-EM …Read the article
Last week Anthony was back on the road headed for South America’s hottest economy: Chile.
With a population of more than 17 million and nominal GDP over $248bn, Chile’s economy is currently the 6th largest in the Latin American continent, after Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Colombia and Venezuela.
Yet, Chile’s economy delivered a growth rate over 4.6% in 2012, comfortably outpacing the regional av…Read the article
OK so that wasn’t the exact title of the IMF’s paper from the end of last year – it was Investment-Led Growth in China: Global Spillovers – but you get the gist.
First a little preamble. Many people who were China bears last year have become less bearish or even outright bullish, no doubt on the back of an improvement in Chinese economic data and a corresponding rally in China’s equity markets…Read the article
My last research trip video to Asia was deemed by our marketing department to be so bad that we all had to be sat down and told what would be common sense to most people; apparently it’s not a great idea to speak to camera next to a busy airport runway, and you can’t see anything if you record yourself in your hotel room at night with the main lights off. So hopefully this effort is a slight im…Read the article
This speech by Mark Carney, incoming Bank of England Governor, to the CFA Institute in Toronto, is potentially very important for UK monetary policy. He appears to suggest that targeting a level of Nominal GDP (NGDP) can be more powerful than an inflation target. Importantly he also emphasises the “history dependence” of such a policy regime, and that “bygones are not bygones”. Central bankers …Read the article
Last night’s move by the Federal Reserve to change its approach to US monetary policy to effectively reduce the focus on the inflation target was just the latest step in an accelerating project by the world’s monetary authorities. In a world where unemployment rates are well above pretty much anyone’s estimate of the natural rate, and in many geographies well above 10%, the need for growth is…Read the article
In my last blog, about the many positive signals for US housing and the massive potential for that to drive US growth over the next couple of years (see here). I mentioned that I’d met recently with George Trefgarne, the author of a Centre for Policy Studies booklet called Metroboom. In it he pointed out how important housing construction had been in the UK’s recovery from the “slump” of the 19…Read the article
The latest IMF World Economic Outlook came out last week with much fanfare amongst the press and financial markets. We think the IMF produces some absolutely stellar stuff, as we have highlighted here and here in the past. But the forecasts in the IMF WEO, its flagship publication, are laughable. What makes the IMF think that it can forecast five months into the future, let alone five years?
We…Read the article