In recent months we have blogged about the recovery in the US housing market that is currently underway. This is in contrast to the UK experience, where the housing market appears to be stuck in the mud. We thought a quick look under the bonnet could reveal the dynamics at play in both countries.
In order to do this, we have constructed a housing affordability index that captures the three main… Read the article
There are some big risks to the US economy, but the potential for the US housing market to surprise on the upside, and deliver massive gains to US employment might well be the bigger story for 2013.
The real damage that the fiscal cliff is causing is mainly psychological at the moment, discouraging both capital investment and hiring. I’m not allowed to use the phrase that involves metal food co… Read the article
James recently returned from a research trip to the US. He attended the Deutsche Bank Leveraged Finance Conference in Arizona, gaining insights into US market sentiment ahead of the presidential elections and the arising fiscal cliff. Following his latest research trip to Chicago, James had further meetings with a considerable number of US high yield issuers and discussed their outlook for 2013… Read the article
The 2000s were the slowest decade of population growth in the US since the Great Depression. The first set of state population counts for 2011 revealed that there has been no change to this trend. The US experienced the lowest annual population growth rate in 2010-11 since 1945.
William H. Frey concludes that the weak labour market in the US appears to have slowed down immigration to the US and… Read the article
The July RICS survey continued the worrying trend of weaker UK data that has been in evidence since the preliminary UK Q2 GDP data release on July 23rd. It seems that the economic slowdown that has been evident in the US in the past few months is no longer contained to the US alone. The survey showed that UK surveyors are on balance seeing house price falls rather than rises, the first time th… Read the article
US data released last week showed that US house prices fell by 14.4% in the year to the end of March (this is the S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Index, which the market tends to focus more on – the S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-10 Index was down 15.3%). The track record of these indices is not very long though – the composite-20 index goes back to 2000, while the composite-10 index began in 1987. S… Read the article
Investors are almost becoming blasé to dire US housing market data releases, but the reality is that things are getting worse and worse.
The monthly S&P/Case-Shiller figures that came out on Tuesday showed that the US housing market downturn is now more severe than the one that led to the US recession in 1991. As the chart shows (click the chart to enlarge), the S&P/Case-Shiller Index Composit… Read the article
The US housing market is getting worse and worse, and the UK looks set to follow it.
Yesterday saw the monthly update on the disaster that is the US housing market. Figures showed that the downturn is accelerating – the S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Index showed that the US house prices fell 7.7% in the year to the end of last November. The S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-10 Index (which covers the… Read the article
Stefan and I had a research trip to see our New York counterparties at the end of last week. Two key themes emerged. Firstly, when we were there a year ago, many of the Wall Street strategists were cautious on high yield and investment grade bonds. But after a year of strong returns from credit – and especially risky credit – capitulation appears to be the order of the day. Not one strategist w… Read the article