Here’s an update of my favourite long term measure of bond market valuations. I’ve been updating this chart on the blog over the years, and if you’d bought and sold US Treasury bonds when they diverged significantly from the range implied by the Fed’s long term rate expectations, you would have done OK.
So what does my favourite chart show? I’ve shown the 10 year US Treasury bond yie… Read the article
The dramatic rally in US high yield bonds since the end of September saw yields reach lows of 4.6% earlier this month, the US high yield index’s lowest level since 2000. Yields have risen modestly since then but remain very tight: 4.9% at the time of this writing. The US high yield bond spread over risk-free government bonds has narrowed close to its pre-Covid level (see chart below), a tren… Read the article
Wowsers, the U.S. labour market never ceases to amaze bond investors. After the cataclysmic April U.S. employment report—nonfarm payrolls (NFP) had dropped by 20.7 million and the unemployment rate had shot up to 14.7%—there was broad agreement amongst market observers that May would prove to be another challenging month. In a Bloomberg survey of 78 economists, the most bullish forecast was a … Read the article
2019 has been a pleasant ride so far for high yield investors. Over the past 9 months the global high yield market has delivered a total return of 10.9% and an excess return of 6.4%, in part thanks to the U-turn of major central banks. Despite all the good news, things have occasionally gone wrong.
Recent events have reminded high yield investors that investing doesn’t come without risk. Thomas… Read the article
Late on Friday night, the US announced a fresh round of sanctions against Russia, effective from the 26th August. These restrictions represent the 2nd round of sanctions in line with the Chemical and Biological Weapons Control and Warfare Elimination Act of 1991 (CBW Act). The announced sanctions include US opposition to the financial or technical assistance to Russia provided by international… Read the article
As we all know, 2018 turned out to be a tough year for most asset classes, not least High Yield (HY) bonds. The sell-off in the fourth quarter was particularly quick and brutal compared to the recent lulls of benign volatility under the blanket of central bank largesse. Global HY lost a few percentage points in pure local currency terms in 2018, whilst the lower beta and more senior secured hea… Read the article
Emerging Market (EM) bonds and currencies were one of the main beneficiaries of Tuesday’s US mid-term elections, which resulted in a split Congress, with the Democrats controlling the House of Representatives and the Republicans, the Senate. This may refrain President Trump from implementing further fiscal incentives, which usually fuel the economy, lifting Treasury yields and the US dollar. Th… Read the article
The bond sell-off that started last week with the publication of strong US data continued over the past five trading days, even if Friday’s job report came in below expectations and a slew of global data and events only confirmed a worsening momentum: the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut this year’s world economic growth forecast to 3.7%, down from 3.9%, citing challenges to trade; Italian… Read the article
Sovereign bond markets sold off last week, following strong US data. However, Friday’s US jobs report showed that hiring cooled down in September more than expected – a point that markets seemed to ignore as Treasuries continued to sell off. Is it a growing US economy that we have ahead? Or should we expect growth to be challenged by higher rates and rising oil prices? Watch M&G’s portfolio man… Watch the video
The long-end of the US Treasury market has often been described as a giant anaconda: it draws little attention as it sleeps most of the time, but the minute it wakes up, everybody around shakes. US 30-year bonds don’t bite, but their moves can be as poisonous as they basically determine millions of mortgage rates, as well as the price that governments and companies around the world pay for debt… Read the article