anthony_doyle_100

Author profile

Anthony Doyle

Years in the bond markets: 14

Specialist subjects: Economics and interest rates

Likes: Rugby, steak and red wine, country music

Heroes: David Campese, Banjo Paterson, Johnny Cash

4-years-of-the-ECB

Four years of the ECB doing “whatever it takes”

Transport yourself back to July 26, 2012. Borrowing costs for the “peripheral” European nations are uncomfortably high. Ireland, Portugal and Greece were in the process of applying for bailouts, while the Spanish banking system was dangerously close to falling over. It wasn’t a question of when an EU member would leave the single currency bloc, but who? Step forward ECB President Mario Draghi, …

Read the article

Didn’t make it to the FT Festival of Finance? We interviewed Pettis, Keen, White and Leaviss for their views.

A few of the M&G bond team recently attended the FT’s Festival of Finance. Known as the Glastonbury of the Financial World, M&G’s Anthony Doyle brought a camera crew along and interviewed a number of speakers on the day, including Michael Pettis (China expert), Steve Keen (of “Debunking Economics” fame), Alex White (political pundit from The Economist) and our own Jim Leaviss. Watch the upcomin…

Read the article
the us economy is not slowing down its getting close to full employment

The US economy is not slowing down, it’s getting close to full employment

We are a little bemused following the latest US Employment report. The headline figure of +38,000 jobs for May (expected: +160,000) disappointed the market, with Treasuries rallying and a June/July rate hike off the table in most economists’ views. A decline in the participation rate to 62.6% helped the unemployment rate fall to 4.7%, the lowest level since 2007, while average hourly earnings r…

Read the article
US companies are scared of risk

Happy Halloween. Five scary charts that Freddy Krueger would be proud of.

M&G and bondvigilantes.com proudly present the scariest charts on the global economy. Some will make you laugh, some will make you cry. You will be amazed, you will be enchanted, you will be mystified, you will be amused. Of course, the following is not for the faint of heart. You have been warned.

  1. Companies are scared of risk

There has been a glut of corporate bond issuance since the financ…

Read the article

El Niño is coming. What are the effects on GDP, commodity prices and inflation?

Whilst economic forecasters are currently concerned about falling oil prices and the implications for global growth, weather forecasters worry about the impact an El Niño weather event could have on global weather patterns. In August, America’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said there is a 90% chance that the current Niño event will continue through the remainder of the…

Read the article

A quick look at possible implications of China’s record weakening of the renminbi

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has announced this morning that it is improving the pricing mechanism of the daily fixing rate of the renminbi. It will do this by referencing the previous day’s closing rate and by taking into account “demand and supply conditions in the foreign exchange markets” as well as exchange rate movements of other major currencies. As a result, the USDCNY (US dollar t…

Read the article
2015-08 us blog1

As economists predict a Fed rate hike, can we learn anything from the 2013 “Fed Fake”?

Thirty-five out of forty-one economists surveyed by Bloomberg currently expect the FOMC to hike the Fed Funds rate on September 17, thereby starting a period of policy normalisation. Most have pointed towards the July FOMC statement which noted better data on net in June and suggested some progress toward the conditions for lift-off. Those economists forecasting a rate hike will tell you that t…

Read the article
Slide1

The Euro, confidence and consumption will drive European GDP

It has been difficult to filter through the noise of the Greece situation these past few months. But when you stop and have a look at the economic backdrop, things don’t look as bad as some of the alarming headlines might have you believe. Some significant economic headwinds have turned into tailwinds, which will likely drive European growth for the next 18 months.

1. The Euro

In April, the E…

Read the article
3tRzV_frame_25

M&G Panoramic Outlook: Jim Leaviss’ views for the second half of 2015

Deflation. Liquidity. Greece. These are the words of 2015 if you are a bond investor. The year started off with a bang, or rather a break, when the Swiss National Bank (SNB) announced the surprise abandonment of the peg with the euro. This was only a mere week before the European Central Bank (ECB) embarked upon an historic quantitative easing programme. Deflation took hold in Europe, governmen…

Read the article

The M&G YouGov Inflation Expectations Survey – Q2 2015

A wide range of household decisions – like whether to buy a house, take out a car loan or ask for a pay rise – are affected by expectations about future inflation. Central bankers believe that by closely monitoring inflation expectations they can deepen their understanding about the economic behaviour of consumers. Surveys like the M&G YouGov Inflation Expectations Survey are extremely interest…

Read the article