Author profile

Anthony Doyle

Years in the bond markets: 14

Specialist subjects: Economics and interest rates

Likes: Rugby, steak and red wine, country music

Heroes: David Campese, Banjo Paterson, Johnny Cash

Cracks in the reflation trade

It is hard to remember a time when there was so much disagreement around the outlook for corporate bond markets and risk assets. Some investors remain sceptical about the underlying strength of the rally and are uneasy at the pace at which secular stagnation concerns were washed away by the election of Donald Trump. Other investors, hesitant to hold cash or in negative yielding short-dated gove…

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BVTV: Our global credit dealer discusses demand, supply, central bank purchases and more

I was joined by Chris Clemmow (Fixed Income Dealer, M&G Investments) this morning for a quick chat about global credit markets. Chris is at the coal face of bond markets, and is a primary source of market information for the fund managers at M&G.  Tune in for a discussion of the prevailing market dynamics of the investment grade bond market, and a look at what happens when Article 50 is trigger…

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Three of our most popular charts

We often use Twitter to share the charts that we think are interesting, but probably don’t warrant the extra analysis of a blog. With this in mind, I’ve had a look to see which charts were most favourited or retweeted by our followers at @bondvigilantes and provided a little more detail than 140 characters can allow.

  1. Fed Loan Officer Survey show US banks have tightened standards for six consec…

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Private sector credit in China is approaching an historic crisis level

Credit is the oil that lubricates the engine of an economy. For this reason, economists watch credit statistics closely, in order to assess the sustainability of growth. If credit isn’t growing, it suggests households and firms aren’t confident enough in their respective outlooks to borrow and invest. If credit grows too quickly, it could result in financial and macroeconomic instability – hist…

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This week on Bond Vigilantes TV

Join us on Bond Vigilantes TV, where this week we discuss:

  1. Sterling – how low might it go?
  2. The curious case of rising US dollar and US Treasury yield correlations;
  3. Corporate bond markets and economic uncertainty;
  4. Euro corporate bond issuance – a sign of things to come?

Tune in for our thoughts on the stories making headlines this week.

 

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A whole new ball game. M&G 2017 economic and bond market outlook.

In our latest Panoramic Outlook, Jim Leaviss has a look at the forces that resulted in a tumultuous year for establishment politics, the ECB’s quantitative easing dilemma and the prospects for emerging markets in 2017. For the first time since the financial crisis, it appears that bond yields will come under sustained pressure as central banks gradually remove monetary stimulus. The impacts of …

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New York research trip: a Bond Vigilantes quick video update

Corporate bond fund managers Stefan Isaacs and Richard Woolnough have just come back from New York, where they spent a couple of days meeting economists and bond market strategists. While they were there, they took the opportunity to film a short video. In it, Stefan and Richard discuss the US bond market, central bank intervention, and the lack of consensus on the outlook for corporate bonds.

 

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How will bond and currency markets react to the US election result?

We are now less than a week away from the US presidential election, with the latest polls suggesting the race to become the 45th President of the United States is neck and neck. Bond and currency managers around the world are currently trying to assess how a win for either candidate might affect their portfolios. Here is my best estimate as to what might happen.

A Clinton win

A Clinton victory …

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