Author profile

Anthony Doyle

Years in the bond markets: 11

Specialist subjects: Economics and interest rates

Likes: Rugby, steak and red wine, country music

Heroes: David Campese, Banjo Paterson, Johnny Cash

US companies are scared of risk

Happy Halloween. Five scary charts that Freddy Krueger would be proud of.

M&G and proudly present the scariest charts on the global economy. Some will make you laugh, some will make you cry. You will be amazed, you will be enchanted, you will be mystified, you will be amused. Of course, the following is not for the faint of heart. You have been warned.

  1. Companies are scared of risk

There has been a glut of corporate bond issuance since the financ…

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El Niño is coming. What are the effects on GDP, commodity prices and inflation?

Whilst economic forecasters are currently concerned about falling oil prices and the implications for global growth, weather forecasters worry about the impact an El Niño weather event could have on global weather patterns. In August, America’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said there is a 90% chance that the current Niño event will continue through the remainder of the…

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A quick look at possible implications of China’s record weakening of the renminbi

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has announced this morning that it is improving the pricing mechanism of the daily fixing rate of the renminbi. It will do this by referencing the previous day’s closing rate and by taking into account “demand and supply conditions in the foreign exchange markets” as well as exchange rate movements of other major currencies. As a result, the USDCNY (US dollar t…

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2015-08 us blog1

As economists predict a Fed rate hike, can we learn anything from the 2013 “Fed Fake”?

Thirty-five out of forty-one economists surveyed by Bloomberg currently expect the FOMC to hike the Fed Funds rate on September 17, thereby starting a period of policy normalisation. Most have pointed towards the July FOMC statement which noted better data on net in June and suggested some progress toward the conditions for lift-off. Those economists forecasting a rate hike will tell you that t…

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The Euro, confidence and consumption will drive European GDP

It has been difficult to filter through the noise of the Greece situation these past few months. But when you stop and have a look at the economic backdrop, things don’t look as bad as some of the alarming headlines might have you believe. Some significant economic headwinds have turned into tailwinds, which will likely drive European growth for the next 18 months.

1. The Euro

In April, the E…

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M&G Panoramic Outlook: Jim Leaviss’ views for the second half of 2015

Deflation. Liquidity. Greece. These are the words of 2015 if you are a bond investor. The year started off with a bang, or rather a break, when the Swiss National Bank (SNB) announced the surprise abandonment of the peg with the euro. This was only a mere week before the European Central Bank (ECB) embarked upon an historic quantitative easing programme. Deflation took hold in Europe, governmen…

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The M&G YouGov Inflation Expectations Survey – Q2 2015

A wide range of household decisions – like whether to buy a house, take out a car loan or ask for a pay rise – are affected by expectations about future inflation. Central bankers believe that by closely monitoring inflation expectations they can deepen their understanding about the economic behaviour of consumers. Surveys like the M&G YouGov Inflation Expectations Survey are extremely interest…

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The downside of bonds

Government bond yields are extremely low across the globe. The highly unusual phenomenon of negative bond yields – even on debt issued by countries that still face a debt crisis – is now commonplace. In addition, investors are looking to protect themselves from the carnage in bond markets we have seen in recent weeks  (for example, the “risk-free” German 2.5% 2046 bond is down -19% since the hi…

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Tweet inflation survey March 15

The M&G YouGov Inflation Expectations Survey – Q1 2015

Economic policy hawks love inflation expectation surveys. As do bond fund managers, who like to keep a close eye on inflation to ensure that fixed income returns aren’t being eroded away. Provided that inflation expectations are close to target, we tend to argue expectations are well anchored and thus central bankers can rest easy. However, the monetary policy actions undertaken by many central…

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2015-03 blog

Falling consumer and oil prices may not provide the boost to growth many are expecting

The spectre of deflation currently haunts central bankers around the world, though many of us would question whether the true effects of falling prices are being felt in the real economy and more importantly in consumers’ wallets.

According to the results of the M&G YouGov Inflation Expectations Survey over the past two years, European consumers often believe that inflation in one and five year…

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