Author profile

Anthony Doyle

Years in the bond markets: 15

Specialist subjects: Economics and interest rates

Likes: Rugby, steak and red wine, country music

Heroes: David Campese, Banjo Paterson, Johnny Cash

Here are some of the scariest charts in finance to celebrate Halloween

Investment markets have been remarkably resilient over the course of 2017. Sure, the geopolitical environment has thrown up a few frightening days which saw markets sell-off but on the whole volatility has been muted and most asset classes have generated solid total returns. That said, any horror movie fan will tell you that the scariest part of a horror film happens when things are relatively …

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BVTV: And you thought Halloween was scary. Risks, rates and Brexit.

This week on BVTV I am joined by Helen Thomas from blondemoney.co.uk. Helen thinks that the market is underestimating the scenarios around Brexit, and believes that a reversal of Brexit should be on investors’ radars. With many expecting a continuation of the current goldilocks environment (low inflation, solid growth) into 2018, and the Bank of England in-play this week, could an unforeseen de…

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Is it time for the Bank of England to target nominal GDP?

In December 2012, the then Governor of the Bank of Canada, Mark Carney, gave a speech entitled “Guidance” to the CFA Society of Toronto. Less than two weeks earlier, the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, had announced that Carney would be the 120th Governor of the Bank of England (BoE). As this was Carney’s first public engagement since the announcement, traders and market economi…

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BVTV: The ECB, primary markets, and the insurance industry

Dr. Wolfgang Bauer, M&G fund manager, helps manage corporate bond and absolute return portfolios. This week on BVTV I ask him:

  1. What were the key takeaways from the ECB meeting?
  2. Primary market issuance is picking up again, who has been most active in issuing new debt?
  3. How will the insurance sector be impacted by the devastating natural disasters that have hit the U.S. in recent weeks?

Hear Wol…

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The 2nd largest bailout in British history and its economic effects

The Slavery Abolition Act of 1833 formally freed 800,000 Africans who were then the legal property of Britain’s slave owners. What is less well known is that the same act contained a provision for the financial compensation of the owners of those slaves, by the British taxpayer, for the loss of their “property”. The compensation commission was the government body established to evaluate the cla…

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Premier League footballers are making currency calls, like rappers and models in 2007. Are they right to avoid GBP?

According to recent reports, leading foreign football players in the English Premier League are looking to get paid in euro rather than sterling. Since the UK referendum result in June last year, sterling has fallen by 12% against the euro, so it is unsurprising to see that some players have questioned the denomination of their salaries. It is not the first time that global stars have asked to …

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M&G Panoramic Outlook: Emerging market corporate bonds – falling default rates and high yields. Too good to be true?

There are a lot of misconceptions about defaults in emerging market (EM) debt. Too often, EM corporates are either considered ‘serial defaulters’ compared with their developed market peers, or seen as a single and homogeneous geography. In reality, default rates follow economic cycles, and having a regional, if not country, approach to default risk remains paramount due to different jurisdictio…

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Cracks in the reflation trade

It is hard to remember a time when there was so much disagreement around the outlook for corporate bond markets and risk assets. Some investors remain sceptical about the underlying strength of the rally and are uneasy at the pace at which secular stagnation concerns were washed away by the election of Donald Trump. Other investors, hesitant to hold cash or in negative yielding short-dated gove…

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