Author profile

Anthony Doyle

Years in the bond markets: 15

Specialist subjects: Economics and interest rates

Likes: Rugby, steak and red wine, country music

Heroes: David Campese, Banjo Paterson, Johnny Cash

Is it time for the Bank of England to target nominal GDP?

In December 2012, the then Governor of the Bank of Canada, Mark Carney, gave a speech entitled “Guidance” to the CFA Society of Toronto. Less than two weeks earlier, the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, had announced that Carney would be the 120th Governor of the Bank of England (BoE). As this was Carney’s first public engagement since the announcement, traders and market economi…

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BVTV: The ECB, primary markets, and the insurance industry

Dr. Wolfgang Bauer, M&G fund manager, helps manage corporate bond and absolute return portfolios. This week on BVTV I ask him:

  1. What were the key takeaways from the ECB meeting?
  2. Primary market issuance is picking up again, who has been most active in issuing new debt?
  3. How will the insurance sector be impacted by the devastating natural disasters that have hit the U.S. in recent weeks?

Hear Wol…

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The 2nd largest bailout in British history and its economic effects

The Slavery Abolition Act of 1833 formally freed 800,000 Africans who were then the legal property of Britain’s slave owners. What is less well known is that the same act contained a provision for the financial compensation of the owners of those slaves, by the British taxpayer, for the loss of their “property”. The compensation commission was the government body established to evaluate the cla…

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Premier League footballers are making currency calls, like rappers and models in 2007. Are they right to avoid GBP?

According to recent reports, leading foreign football players in the English Premier League are looking to get paid in euro rather than sterling. Since the UK referendum result in June last year, sterling has fallen by 12% against the euro, so it is unsurprising to see that some players have questioned the denomination of their salaries. It is not the first time that global stars have asked to …

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M&G Panoramic Outlook: Emerging market corporate bonds – falling default rates and high yields. Too good to be true?

There are a lot of misconceptions about defaults in emerging market (EM) debt. Too often, EM corporates are either considered ‘serial defaulters’ compared with their developed market peers, or seen as a single and homogeneous geography. In reality, default rates follow economic cycles, and having a regional, if not country, approach to default risk remains paramount due to different jurisdictio…

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Cracks in the reflation trade

It is hard to remember a time when there was so much disagreement around the outlook for corporate bond markets and risk assets. Some investors remain sceptical about the underlying strength of the rally and are uneasy at the pace at which secular stagnation concerns were washed away by the election of Donald Trump. Other investors, hesitant to hold cash or in negative yielding short-dated gove…

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BVTV: Our global credit dealer discusses demand, supply, central bank purchases and more

I was joined by Chris Clemmow (Fixed Income Dealer, M&G Investments) this morning for a quick chat about global credit markets. Chris is at the coal face of bond markets, and is a primary source of market information for the fund managers at M&G.  Tune in for a discussion of the prevailing market dynamics of the investment grade bond market, and a look at what happens when Article 50 is trigger…

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Three of our most popular charts

We often use Twitter to share the charts that we think are interesting, but probably don’t warrant the extra analysis of a blog. With this in mind, I’ve had a look to see which charts were most favourited or retweeted by our followers at @bondvigilantes and provided a little more detail than 140 characters can allow.

  1. Fed Loan Officer Survey show US banks have tightened standards for six consec…

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