Author profile

Anthony Doyle

Years in the bond markets: 16

Specialist subjects: Economics and interest rates

Likes: Rugby, steak and red wine, country music

Heroes: David Campese, Banjo Paterson, Johnny Cash

Can bond markets digest the huge supply of U.S. Treasuries that will be issued this year?

The United States government routinely finances itself through short-term debt, which is normally less expensive than long-term debt, due to the upward sloping nature of the U.S. yield curve. This cost saving does increase the risk of default. Rollover risk arises any time short-term debt is used to finance long-term spending. It is what keeps debt management officials up at night.

The U.S. gov…

Read the article

2018: The end of the (QE) affair. M&G’s economic and bond market outlook

In our latest Panoramic Outlook, Jim Leaviss assesses the forces behind the robust and broad-based nature of global economic growth in recent months and the prospects for this broadly rosy outlook continuing into 2018. He looks at where we are within the current global deleveraging cycle, and asks how high this means that rates can go. In Jim’s view, the quality of investment grade credit has s…

Read the article

BVTV: Fund Manager Stefan Isaacs on 2017, 2018, and the prospects for Liverpool in the UEFA Champions League

This week Stefan Isaacs joins me to review the year that was. Sitting on a bond desk in the City of London, it appeared to be a solid but pretty dull year for fixed income markets. Fortunately, we had the drama of Brexit negotiations and Donald Trump to keep us occupied over the course of the year.

I also question Stefan about his 2018 outlook for bond markets, and whether Liverpool can actuall…

Watch the video

BVTV: Listed infrastructure – how would the asset class respond to higher interest rates and inflation?

A number of asset classes, including listed infrastructure assets, have benefited from the global search for yield that has taken place following a collapse in short and long-term government bond yields. But what if the positive tailwinds of low interest rates and inflation start to reverse? Whilst the current consensus is that monetary policy stimulus will be removed at a very gradual pace, it…

Watch the video

Here are some of the scariest charts in finance to celebrate Halloween

Investment markets have been remarkably resilient over the course of 2017. Sure, the geopolitical environment has thrown up a few frightening days which saw markets sell-off but on the whole volatility has been muted and most asset classes have generated solid total returns. That said, any horror movie fan will tell you that the scariest part of a horror film happens when things are relatively …

Read the article

BVTV: And you thought Halloween was scary. Risks, rates and Brexit.

This week on BVTV I am joined by Helen Thomas from blondemoney.co.uk. Helen thinks that the market is underestimating the scenarios around Brexit, and believes that a reversal of Brexit should be on investors’ radars. With many expecting a continuation of the current goldilocks environment (low inflation, solid growth) into 2018, and the Bank of England in-play this week, could an unforeseen de…

Watch the video

Is it time for the Bank of England to target nominal GDP?

In December 2012, the then Governor of the Bank of Canada, Mark Carney, gave a speech entitled “Guidance” to the CFA Society of Toronto. Less than two weeks earlier, the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, had announced that Carney would be the 120th Governor of the Bank of England (BoE). As this was Carney’s first public engagement since the announcement, traders and market economi…

Read the article

BVTV: The ECB, primary markets, and the insurance industry

Dr. Wolfgang Bauer, M&G fund manager, helps manage corporate bond and absolute return portfolios. This week on BVTV I ask him:

  1. What were the key takeaways from the ECB meeting?
  2. Primary market issuance is picking up again, who has been most active in issuing new debt?
  3. How will the insurance sector be impacted by the devastating natural disasters that have hit the U.S. in recent weeks?

Hear Wol…

Watch the video

The 2nd largest bailout in British history and its economic effects

The Slavery Abolition Act of 1833 formally freed 800,000 Africans who were then the legal property of Britain’s slave owners. What is less well known is that the same act contained a provision for the financial compensation of the owners of those slaves, by the British taxpayer, for the loss of their “property”. The compensation commission was the government body established to evaluate the cla…

Read the article