Persistent structural weaknesses, imbalances, and financial fragilities. These were some of the ways in which the International Monetary Fund (IMF) described the Italian economy in its most recent country report. Almost a decade after the great financial crisis, Italy’s economic prospects remain dim, with the costs borne disproportionately by the working age and younger population. With no gove…Read the article
This week on BVTV, I have a look at past US interest rate cycles. With new Fed Chair Jerome Powell now in the hot seat, bond investors are keen to understand whether he will be more hawkish than his predecessor, Janet Yellen. Turning to the UK, the market is now pricing in a high probability that the Monetary Policy Committee hikes interest rates in May, but the flattening of the gilt curve may…Watch the video
The United States government routinely finances itself through short-term debt, which is normally less expensive than long-term debt, due to the upward sloping nature of the U.S. yield curve. This cost saving does increase the risk of default. Rollover risk arises any time short-term debt is used to finance long-term spending. It is what keeps debt management officials up at night.
The U.S. gov…Read the article
In our latest Panoramic Outlook, Jim Leaviss assesses the forces behind the robust and broad-based nature of global economic growth in recent months and the prospects for this broadly rosy outlook continuing into 2018. He looks at where we are within the current global deleveraging cycle, and asks how high this means that rates can go. In Jim’s view, the quality of investment grade credit has s…Read the article
This week Stefan Isaacs joins me to review the year that was. Sitting on a bond desk in the City of London, it appeared to be a solid but pretty dull year for fixed income markets. Fortunately, we had the drama of Brexit negotiations and Donald Trump to keep us occupied over the course of the year.
I also question Stefan about his 2018 outlook for bond markets, and whether Liverpool can actuall…Watch the video
A number of asset classes, including listed infrastructure assets, have benefited from the global search for yield that has taken place following a collapse in short and long-term government bond yields. But what if the positive tailwinds of low interest rates and inflation start to reverse? Whilst the current consensus is that monetary policy stimulus will be removed at a very gradual pace, it…Watch the video
Investment markets have been remarkably resilient over the course of 2017. Sure, the geopolitical environment has thrown up a few frightening days which saw markets sell-off but on the whole volatility has been muted and most asset classes have generated solid total returns. That said, any horror movie fan will tell you that the scariest part of a horror film happens when things are relatively …Read the article
This week on BVTV I am joined by Helen Thomas from blondemoney.co.uk. Helen thinks that the market is underestimating the scenarios around Brexit, and believes that a reversal of Brexit should be on investors’ radars. With many expecting a continuation of the current goldilocks environment (low inflation, solid growth) into 2018, and the Bank of England in-play this week, could an unforeseen de…Watch the video
In December 2012, the then Governor of the Bank of Canada, Mark Carney, gave a speech entitled “Guidance” to the CFA Society of Toronto. Less than two weeks earlier, the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, had announced that Carney would be the 120th Governor of the Bank of England (BoE). As this was Carney’s first public engagement since the announcement, traders and market economi…Read the article
Dr. Wolfgang Bauer, M&G fund manager, helps manage corporate bond and absolute return portfolios. This week on BVTV I ask him:
- What were the key takeaways from the ECB meeting?
- Primary market issuance is picking up again, who has been most active in issuing new debt?
- How will the insurance sector be impacted by the devastating natural disasters that have hit the U.S. in recent weeks?
Hear Wol…Watch the video